Someone else will be writing the weekend preview piece this week so I thought that I would get in an early observation or two about the coming weekend's interesting mathematics. To be honest, I'm still not really sure I have all the intricate details worked out, despite several lengthy conversations with people who do, but then (as long-term readers of the old Triathletes Homepage may remember) I do have a history of being bamboozled by numbers!

This weekend's BG World Cup race in Ishigaki, Japan is the last opportunity to score ranking points that will ensure an athlete a place on the starting pontoon at Madrid - the race which many countries, including GB, are using to decide their squads for Olympic selection. (Technically a British athlete can't be selected for the Olympics based on their result at Madrid, only put forward to the British Olympic Association for their selection.) So, with the entry list for Madrid closing one day before the World Cup race in Korea, there's everything to play for.

To get an automatic slot on the pontoon you'll need to be in the top 25 of the ITU's World Rankings - which currently puts Tim Don and Andrew Johns there for sure and, barring an excellent result by Will Clarke in Ishigaki, should also mean that Stuart Hayes and Olly Freeman are there as well. For the women there's Andrea Whitcombe, Liz Blatchford, Helen Tucker and Kerry Lang in there at the moment but there's a statistical possibility that both Lang and Tucker could get dislodged.

So, who is racing in Ishigaki to defend their positions? In the men's field there's just Tim Don and Will Clarke while the women's field includes Tucker and Lang plus Jodie Swallow and Hollie Avil. So there's still the chance of a bit of a change-around in the rankings to make life more interesting!

Those who know the World Cup system will have spotted that we have only talked about the fact that start slots based on the top 25 rankings and the fact that, as far as GB is concerned, we could get up to four men and four women onto the start at Madrid as a result. Each nation gets a maximum of six slots and, as far as GB is concerned, the other two slots are allocated on a discretionary basis. The first of those slots goes to a ranked athlete who isn't in the top 25, the next-in-line if you like while the other is a completely discretionary slot and can be used to get World Cup experience for an athlete. If there are less than four GB athletes in the top 25 after Ishigaki then the number of discretionary slots will expand accordingly.

And, after Ishigaki, there's Tongyeong in Korea - which gives us a perfect example of how the system works. Down on the men's start list are Don, Hayes, Johns, Clarke, Brownlee and Nicholls while the women's start list shows Whitcombe, Blatchford, Avil and Wellington. Yes, you read that right, Chrissie Wellington is down to start in Korea.

Now, there's no way that she can get enough points from even a win in Korea to get into the rankings that will count for Madrid - if you have been reading carefully you'll remember that the Madrid start lists close the day before Tongyeong. So, why is she down to race? Well, the obvious answer is to see how she goes in a World Cup field after she's recovered from Ironman Australia. But, surely, if she cannot qualify to get a start in Madrid, what's the point?

And, gentle reader, this is the bit that still confuses! Totally theoretically and setting aside all that's been previously said, it would be possible for an athlete to be selected to go to the Olympics based on their potential as opposed to the number of points that they have scored! They do have to be in the ranking system and they do have to be above a certain level but the choice of which athletes are put forward to the BOA is down to the selection policy set out by British Triathlon.

Given that, while we have three slots secured for the men's field in the Olympics, we currently only have one secure woman's slot and a second one which, statistically at least, ought to be secure it seems strange to be speculating on the chances of a complete outsider making it into the selection process. There is an outside chance of getting a third slot if we can get ahead of both Austria and France in the rankings - Kate Allen's crash last weekend may have helped us in that respect as she may be out of competiton for a while and the prospect of having ex-Brit Jess Harrison getting a slot for France ahead of her former team-mates is indeed ironic...

One thing is for sure, there's going to be massive determination on the part of the lower-ranked GB women to either make, or secure, their position in the top 25. Tucker and Lang need good results in Ishigaki to secure their hold but a blinding race from Avil or Swallow could still upset that. Dillon has set everything on being given one of the discretionary slots for Madrid - although there is the alternative path of getting a top result at the European Championships - which leaves at least three athletes vying for the one remaining Madrid slot.

While the results at Ishigaki this weekend represent the end of the beginning of the process, it's only the beginning of the end for the ultimate process which will culminate in an athlete getting a start in Beijing. There's still everything to play for!

The above comments are based on my current best understanding of the situation. Errors, omissions and completely erroneous conclusions are entirely possible so don't go booking a trip to the Olympics based on this!!