As the ‘home of triathlon’ prepares for what promises to be another action-packed thriller, TRI247 takes a look at the key issues which could well decide the winners of Challenge Roth.

Can anyone stop man-of-the-moment Kristian Blummenfelt? Is it really a two-woman race between Brits Kat Matthews and Lucy Charles-Barclay? If not, then who else could challenge?

And as the world’s elite gather on one of the fastest triathlon courses in the world, are we about to see the history books rewritten with the potential for new world records for both the men and the women?

We really can’t wait to find out…

Can anyone stop Kristian Blummenfelt?

When Blummenfelt announced his intention to line up in Bavaria this weekend, he sparked a level of anticipation and excitement that, arguably, not even the iconic Challenge Roth had witnessed before.

It may seem somewhat controversial to say it, but the Norwegian’s inclusion seemed to take what was already an epic event on the triathlon calendar and lift it to unprecedented levels.

Much as Tiger Woods would do for the sport of golf or Usain Bolt in athletics, news that ‘Big Blu’ had signed up for Roth injected a heightened sense of thrill, intrigue and delight as fans pondered the prospect of seeing the world’s best long-distance athlete tackling a race very much regarded as triathlon’s greatest show.

Blummenfelt comes to Germany having already won three races this season – at IRONMAN Texas and the two 70.3s at Geelong and Oceanside – with performances that have often defied belief and most certainly stretched the realms of what many had thought possible in triathlon.

Unlikely to be leading the pack out of the swim, he has already shown how he can first reduce any deficit on the bike before then utilising his incredible, some might say almost superhuman, running power to complete the job.

He will, however, be only too aware that his two most dangerous rivals, Sam Laidlow (FRA) and Jonas Schomburg (GER), are both incredible swimmers and are likely to have a handy advantage over him as they exit the Main-Donau Canal and head for T1.

If Laidlow and Schomburg can somehow work together on the bike, there is a chance they will prove too strong for Blummenfelt, and he will struggle to close the gap. Likewise, being well aware of Blummenfelt’s incredible running strength, both athletes will no doubt have a time in their minds with regard to how far ahead they will want to be when exiting T2.

In Texas, Blummenfelt was 90 seconds behind Marten Van Riel (BEL); at Oceanside, he was around two minutes behind leaders Schomburg and Sam Long (USA). You could probably argue a case for Blummenfelt to chase down pretty much any number under ten minutes.

So while all three sections are crucial, the statistic which is most likely to decide the winner on Sunday is the size of that gap between whoever is leading out of T2 and the beast of a Norwegian looking to add yet another title to his name.

Battle of the Brits: Kat Matthews v LCB

What had looked like it was going to be another epic contest between Kat Matthews and Laura Philipp has instead turned into something of a battle of the Britons as the German’s unfortunate injury woes have let in former world champion Lucy Charles-Barclay for another crack at Roth.

While it would be wrong to suggest that this is a two-woman race, the calibre and history of these two serial winners when it comes to the big events certainly make them the two to beat.

But who is most likely to edge it on the day?

A look at the past meetings of these two superstars shows that LCB has certainly had the edge over her great rival down the years, crossing the line ahead of Matthews in eight of the ten races where they have competed.

On four of those occasions, LCB finished first, and a further three saw her take a spot on the podium. Kat came out on top at the T100 in London two years ago when she finished third, and again at the IRONMAN World Championships in Kona last year when she was second.

Indeed, a quirk of their recent battles shows that at least one of them has recorded a DNF in their last five races together. Dating back to the 2023 worlds, where LCB secured her title and Matthews didn’t finish, it was a similar story at the Miami T100 in 2024 and also at the 70.3 World Championships in 2025, where LCB was once again victorious.

For her part, LCB failed to finish the 2024 T100 in London and, more famously, the world championships in Kona last October.

LCB also has experience of the Roth course, having won the race in 2019 and finishing runner-up in 2018, whereas Matthews is taking in this extraordinary explosion of the senses for the very first time.

However, while the stats and head-to-heads may all point to an LCB victory, it is worth remembering that races are not won on spreadsheets.

With LCB having competed only once this season – winning at IRONMAN Lanzarote – due to undergoing tendon surgery in the winter, much will depend on whether she can keep pace with an athlete in Matthews who has looked incredibly strong this season.

Her opening victory at IRONMAN New Zealand was followed by success at the 70.3 in Geelong, and only a week or so ago she won again, this time at the 70.3 in Elsinore. Indeed, the only time she has failed to win a race that she has started this year is when a puncture ruined her chances in Texas.

If they can both stay the distance, then this promises to be one of the most exciting battles of the season… and potentially one for the ages.

Which men could challenge for the podium?

As far as the men are concerned, we have already mentioned the likes of defending champion Laidlow and dangerman Schomburg, both of whom have tasted victory this season – the Frenchman winning at IRONMAN Lanzarote and 70.3 Valencia, while the German took the tape at Challenge Sir Bani-Yas.

Laidlow and Blummenfelt have been trading banter on social media for the last few months, and it is no secret that last year’s champion would love to bring down the in-form Norwegian. But it would be dangerous to only focus on the threat of ‘Big Blu’.

Schomburg was second to Blummenfelt at Oceanside and looked in good shape at Texas before suffering a few pacing issues; if he gets it right on Sunday, then he could very well be the one to catch.

Another former champion and two-time runner-up returning to Roth this weekend is Patrick Lange (GER). He finished in second place behind Laidlow in Lanzarote and, despite suffering from back issues at times this season, certainly has the skills to challenge.

It is also worth mentioning the potential threat of 25-year-old German Rico Bogen, who will be lining up for his first-ever full-distance race, fresh from a runner-up spot at 70.3 Pays d’Aix and a win at T100 San Francisco. A dark horse in a race full of stallions, expect him to go out fast.

The late inclusion of three-time Roth winner and current course record holder Magnus Ditlev (DEN) has also raised a few eyebrows, making the men’s field all the more tricky to navigate.

Which women could challenge for the podium?

As far as the women are concerned, the main challengers to Matthews and LCB are likely to be Alanis Siffert (SUI) and the German duo of Caroline Pohle and 2018 winner Daniela Bleymehl.

Siffert has won twice this season, most recently at the Zarauzko Triathlon and earlier in the year at 70.3 Shanghai, while she also made the Roth podium with a third-placed finish last year.

Pohle has been in outstanding form this year, dominating the Challenge Tour with wins at Gran Canaria, St Pölten and also the big one, Challenge ‘The Championship’. This weekend, however, not only represents her first look at Roth but also her first full-distance race, and it may prove too much of an ask to challenge the likes of Matthews and Charles-Barclay on her debut.

Bleymehl finished third at IRONMAN South Africa in April and was also third at IRONMAN Hamburg last year, but her most recent long-distance win came all the way back in 2022 when she took the tape at IRONMAN Frankfurt. Her 2018 Roth win saw her beat LCB into second by just nine seconds.

Will it be a day for the record books?

One of the aspects that makes Roth such a thrilling race is the course being one of the fastest on the world circuit.

Granted, there may be a couple of testing climbs – Solar Hill being one of the highlights – but the swim is in the calm waters of a canal, there are plenty of easy descents on smooth roads on the bike, and the run is along a flat gravel path.

A quick count suggests that at least seven world record times have been set at Roth down the years, with the 8:02:38 by Germany’s Anne Haug in 2024 still standing for the women.

Indeed, back in 1991, Thea Sybesma (NED) became the first woman to break the nine-hour mark, and this weekend all eyes will be focused on whether the first sub-eight-hour triathlon can be posted – although much will depend on whether wetsuits are permitted.

Temperatures in Bavaria currently would point to a non-suit swim, meaning a significantly reduced chance of this being a record-breaking weekend.

However, with the depth of quality on show, you never know!