Toulouse SLT Champs formguide: Data sides with Wilde and GTB

Once again, we are pleased to bring to you the numbers ahead of Sunday’s fourth round of racing in the SLT 2022 Championship Series courtesy of Graeme Acheson and Sports4Cast.

The numbers this weekend heavily favour two of the most talked about athletes of the series, with Georgia Taylor-Brown and Hayden Wilde earmarked as potential winners once again. As far as the teams go, it’s the Sharks who are favourites, as the rest of the field scramble to get in contention with Michelle Dillon’s squad.

Men’s race

Following Matt Hauser’s costly crash in Malibu, the SLT Series title is very much in the hands of Hayden Wilde. Should the Kiwi finish first ahead of Hauser this weekend, he is likely to head into the final round in Neom knowing that a minimum of ninth will be enough to take home the crown.

Heading into Toulouse, Wilde has an 11 point lead over second place Vasco Vilaca and 14 points over Hauser in third. Given their current standings in the overall leaderboard, it should come as no surprise that Wilde is tipped for the win ahead of Hauser, with Vilaca favoured to round out the podium ahead of the likes of Jonny Brownlee, Kenji Nener and Malibu podium placer Shachar Sagiv.

In the swim, Hauser is tipped to set the fastest split ahead of Chase McQueen and fellow Team Eagles competitor Jamie Riddle. Given the nature of the “Triple Mix” and its propensity to favour the stronger swimmers, look forward to a fast pace from the front in the water in an effort to split up the field early on.

On the bike, Wilde is expected to make his mark on a tough and technical course, with the numbers favouring the Olympic bronze medalist ahead of Vilaca and Sagiv. The course here in Toulouse will make for some fast and furious racing, but will Hauser’s costly crash in Malibu make some athletes think twice about taking risks on the corners?

With a shortened run on the first and second leg, the strong runners are likely going to have to wait until the final leg to do some real damage, with Wilde again favourite to outmanoeuvre Hauser over this discipline. Behind them, both Brownlee and Vilaca are tipped as ones to watch out for on the run.

Men’s Top 5 Predicted Chances of Winning:

• Hayden Wilde – 25.6%
• Matthew Hauser – 17.7%
• Vasco Vilaca – 16.3%
• Jonathan Brownlee – 9.8%
• Kenji Nener – 9.4%

All of which is echoed by bookies Skybet who make have them in exactly that order at the top of their market.

Women’s race

With just one point separating GTB and Taylor Spivey coming into this weekend, it really is all to play for in the race for the overall SLT Series title. Although Spivey was victorious in Malibu, GTB is understandably the favourite in Toulouse, after a crash in Malibu knocked her out of contention for the win.

But it’s actually her teammate Cassandre Beaugrand who is the next best pick ahead of Spivey, with the Frenchwoman given a 22.7% chance of winning by Sports4Cast in comparison with Spivey’s 17.2%. Following an underwhelming series so far, Beth Potter will hope to live up to her billing as next in the rankings in a push for the podium, with Sophie Coldwell next in line to take the win.

In the water, Beaugrand has been given a 29% chance of coming out on top, with Spivey on 19.3% and Coldwell on 17.1%. With Beaugrand tipped to be the fastest on the swim, it will be interesting if a potential short chute for Team Scorpions ends up being given to GTB.

On the bike, Georgia’s superior prowess puts her head and shoulders above the rest. She is backed as the clear favourite to scoop up the lion’s share of the bike points, with Coldwell in second ahead of Emma Jeffcoat who is tipped as third best.

Finally, Commonwealth Games medallist Potter is still seen as a force to be reckoned with on the run, but if she can put herself in a position to utilise it remains to be seen. Beaugrand is tipped to run second fastest, whilst GTB is third in the final discipline.

Women’s Top 5 Predicted Chances of Winning:

• Georgia Taylor-Brown – 30.7%
• Cassandre Beaugrand – 22.7%
• Taylor Spivey – 17.2%
• Beth Potter – 12.5%
• Sophie Coldwell – 12.4%

Again largely in agreement with Skybet, though they can’t split Beaugrand and Spivey in second and third.

Team predictions

In the team standings, the Sharks are tipped to edge out the Cheetahs in Toulouse, with the Scorpions and Rhinos set to battle it out for third ahead of Team Eagles. With some interesting new wildcard additions this weekend however, it could end up being a much tighter race for the top than usual.

Home favourite Dorian Coninx is set to make his first SLT appearance of the season after most recently winning the Bergen World Cup ahead of Olympic Champion Kristian Blummenfelt. The Frenchman is set to race for Team Eagles and may be the man to help Hauser take on Wilde in the Australian’s search for redemption following the Malibu mishap.

Another wildcard to look out for is Laura Lindemann, who after racing for the Cheetahs in Munich will now represent the Rhinos in Toulouse. The German, who often flies under the radar, could give Team Rhinos an unexpected win this weekend in the south of France.

This is the one market where the data and Skybet are at odds with each other, with the bookies making the Scorpions their clear favourites.