Solveig Løvseth produced the most startling assessment of the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship when the leading contenders faced the media on Thursday ahead of a huge weekend in Nice.
The reigning IRONMAN World Champion is one of the biggest names in a glittering women’s field, yet openly admitted she does not believe she is ready to win over the middle distance on Saturday.
There was considerably more confidence from hometown favourite Marjolaine Pierré, while Gustav Iden revealed that returning to the scene of one of his greatest victories had transformed his expectations for Sunday’s men’s race.
But with predictions flying around ahead of two exceptionally difficult races to call, what does the betting market make of their chances?
Løvseth plays down Nice chances
Løvseth produced one of the performances of the 2025 season when she claimed the IRONMAN World Championship title in Kona.
She then defeated Laura Philipp at IRONMAN Hamburg in June, but has not raced since and revealed that illness severely disrupted the following months.
“It’s been a bit up and down this year,” explained the Norwegian.
“I had a really good start and I’m really happy with all the races I have done, but I’ve only done three races and since that it’s been quite challenging.
“I had many weeks of sickness where I was just lying in bed doing nothing for weeks and weeks, and it just never really let go of my body, it felt like.
“When you’re sick for that long, you start to doubt: ‘Am I ever going to feel good again?’”
There have been far more encouraging signs recently, with Løvseth completing an altitude training block before travelling to France.
“The last weeks have been really good,” she added. “I’ve had a good altitude block and I think when you are sick for some weeks, you also really appreciate getting back into proper training and the ability to actually push the body again.
“Now I’m just really excited to be here in championship season.”
But despite that improvement – and the fact that she confounded expectations to win in Kona – Løvseth suggested the faster 70.3 format may not currently play as strongly to her strengths.
“I don’t really think I can win this race, if I’m being honest,” she said.
“I think I can do well, but you never say never. Of course, everyone has a chance and I didn’t really think I would win in Kona last year either.
“You always need to have an open mind about it, but I’m feeling more confident in the full distance at the moment.”
The bookmakers are more optimistic. Dabble makes Løvseth the fourth favourite at odds of 6.00, which represents an implied probability of 16.7%.
That does not mean the Norwegian has precisely a 16.7% chance of winning – bookmakers build a margin into their prices – but it provides a useful indication of how her prospects compare with those of her rivals.
Knibb leads women’s market
Taylor Knibb is the clear favourite at 2.50, equating to an implied probability of 40%.
That status is hardly surprising.
The American won three successive 70.3 world titles between 2022 and 2024 before finishing second behind Lucy Charles-Barclay in Marbella last year. With the defending champion opting to miss Nice and focus on Kona, Knibb is again the athlete everyone must find a way to beat.
Julie Derron appeared confident as she prepared for another major championship appearance in France, where she claimed Olympic silver in Paris two years ago.
The Swiss athlete is regarded as Knibb’s closest challenger in the market at 4.00, an implied probability of 25%.
Kat Matthews was more circumspect about her own prospects despite arriving with a formidable record at this championship. The British star has finished second twice and is rated the third most likely winner at 4.50, or 22.2%.
Pierré promises to test her rivals
There was no attempt to lower expectations from Pierré.
The Frenchwoman is from Nice, knows the roads intimately and has spent considerable time preparing on the demanding bike course with her partner, Clément Mignon.
“I’ve trained a lot on the uphill and downhill with Clément, my boyfriend, so I tried to follow him,” she explained.
“He was like: ‘If you go down and up like this, maybe nobody can follow you.’
“I’m not sure if he’s right – I want to be realistic, so I hope he’s realistic.”
Pierré’s confidence contrasts sharply with her position in the market. She is the joint-10th favourite at 17.00, representing an implied probability of just 5.9%.
Yet a technical 90km bike route featuring the long ascent of the Col de Vence and a demanding descent could give local knowledge considerably more importance than it would carry at most 70.3 races.
Women’s leading contenders
| Position | Athlete | Decimal odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taylor Knibb (USA) | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| 2 | Julie Derron (SUI) | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| 3 | Kat Matthews (GBR) | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| 4 | Solveig Løvseth (NOR) | 6.00 | 16.7% |
| 5 | Laura Philipp (GER) | 8.00 | 12.5% |
| 6 | Paula Findlay (CAN) | 9.00 | 11.1% |
| 7 | Alanis Siffert (SUI) | 11.00 | 9.1% |
| 8 | Imogen Simmonds (SUI) | 13.00 | 7.7% |
| 9 | Kirsten Kasper (USA) | 16.00 | 6.3% |
| 10= | Marjolaine Pierré (FRA) | 17.00 | 5.9% |
| 10= | Audrey Merle (FRA) | 17.00 | 5.9% |
Iden’s Nice return changes everything
The men’s race appears even more open, with former winners, Olympic champions and some of the most exciting athletes in the sport all possessing realistic hopes of victory.
Iden knows exactly how it feels to triumph on the French Riviera.
The Norwegian claimed the 70.3 world title when the championship was last staged in Nice in 2019 but he admitted he had been lacking conviction about his chances until he returned to the course this week.
“I didn’t quite have the self-belief that I could win this one,” said Iden.
“But after seeing the bike course again, especially the downhill, and everything about this place, it makes me think that I can be the one who stands on the top of the podium.”
Iden expects an “extremely dynamic” contest and believes the distinctive nature of the course leaves “so many ways to do it”.
The bookmakers are less convinced. Despite his pedigree in Nice and two previous 70.3 world titles, Iden is only 10th in the market at 15.00 – an implied probability of 6.7%.
Blummenfelt favourite for ‘hunting race’
Kristian Blummenfelt leads the betting at 3.25, representing an implied probability of 30.8%.
The 2022 champion was beaten by the narrowest of margins when Jelle Geens successfully defended his title in Marbella last year.
Blummenfelt believes the climbing and technical nature of the Nice bike course could produce significant gaps, setting up what he described as a “hunting race” on the flat half marathon along the Promenade des Anglais.
He is joined in the leading group by Stornes, who led a remarkable Norwegian clean sweep at the IRONMAN World Championship in Nice last year.
Stornes warned that he cannot afford to be slow out of T2 this time and predicted an extremely close race. He is fifth in the betting at 7.00, an implied probability of 14.3%.
History beckons for Geens
Geens is attempting to become the first man to win three successive IRONMAN 70.3 world titles after victories in Taupō and Marbella.
An injury-hit season has complicated his preparation, but the Belgian remains excited about a course on which the bike could prove far more influential than it did at the previous two editions.
He is the third favourite at 4.50, giving him an implied probability of 22.2%.
But Geens was also quick to point out that the five men invited to the press conference represent only a fraction of the athletes capable of becoming world champion.
“There are only five seats here but a lot more who will be fighting for the title,” he said.
He specifically highlighted Hayden Wilde, Lasse Nygaard Priester, Rico Bogen, Jonas Schomburg and Jamie Riddle – all of whom feature inside the leading nine in the betting.
Wilde is considered Blummenfelt’s closest challenger at 4.00, while Schomburg is sixth at 8.00.
Can Van Riel preserve perfect record?
Marten Van Riel completed the five-man press-conference line-up and brings an extraordinary record to his first IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship.
The Belgian has won every 70.3 race he has started, including victory on the Nice course last year and his recent success at IRONMAN 70.3 Elsinore.
But like Løvseth, Van Riel has endured some illness during his preparation, introducing another element of uncertainty before the biggest middle-distance start of his career.
He is fourth in the market at 6.50, an implied probability of 15.4%.
And in a field this strong, preserving that perfect record may require his finest 70.3 performance yet.
Men’s leading contenders
| Position | Athlete | Decimal odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kristian Blummenfelt (NOR) | 3.25 | 30.8% |
| 2 | Hayden Wilde (NZL) | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| 3 | Jelle Geens (BEL) | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| 4 | Marten Van Riel (BEL) | 6.50 | 15.4% |
| 5 | Casper Stornes (NOR) | 7.00 | 14.3% |
| 6 | Jonas Schomburg (GER) | 8.00 | 12.5% |
| 7= | Rico Bogen (GER) | 11.00 | 9.1% |
| 7= | Lasse Nygaard Priester (GER) | 11.00 | 9.1% |
| 9 | Jamie Riddle (RSA) | 13.00 | 7.7% |
| 10 | Gustav Iden (NOR) | 15.00 | 6.7% |
