The 247 Endurance ‘Daily Split’ team – click here to subscribe to our free newsletter if you haven’t already – have crunched the numbers and weighed up the form to give their verdict on two compelling IRONMAN World Championships in Kona this weekend.

Reputation alone wasn’t enough: athletes needed results to support their case… Although it has to be said that the heart did rule the head on one or two of our picks, as ‘gut feeling’ also nudged its way into the equation.

Here are the ten athletes who we think can challenge for honours in the men’s race on Saturday. Broken up into three distinct groups, which determine their level of potential, we have the ‘Crown Chasers’, ‘The Glory Hunters’, and those who reside in the ‘Danger Zone’… while there is also a potential party crasher added in – you know, that one athlete who you just can’t seem to shake a feeling about.

The crown chasers

Kristian Blummenfelt: Victory at Texas, second at Roth, and silver at the 70.3 Worlds give Blummenfelt the strongest current-form case in the field. The world No.4 has already made the Kona podium, although his disappointing 2024 performance shows Hawaii remains unfinished business. Sam Laidlow lies in wait.

Sam Laidlow: Laidlow’s Roth victory in 7:21:04 and September win at Samarkand underline his race-winning potential. The 2023 world champion was also Kona runner-up in 2022, giving him the credentials to turn his aggressive racing into another title challenge. He will have a plan to beat ‘Big Blu’… but will it work?

Gustav Iden: The 2022 Kona champion reminded everyone of his capabilities with fourth place and the fastest bike split at the 70.3 Worlds. His uneven full-distance season raises questions, but recent improvement and proven success in Hawaii keep him in our top three… taking the place of injured champion Casper Stornes.

The glory hunters

Jonas Schomburg: Schomburg’s Kalmar victory in 7:22:57, backed by a 2:34:36 marathon, provides compelling evidence of his full-distance potential. He also finished eighth at the 70.3 Worlds, with his lack of Kona experience keeping him outside the top bracket. Will he work with Laidlow to stifle Blummenfelt as they did at Roth?

Marten Van Riel: A Lake Placid victory and second place at Texas establish Van Riel as a serious contender over the full distance. Fourth at last year’s Worlds in Nice adds championship credibility, but his Kona debut presents a fresh test of pacing and heat management that has caught out so many before him.

Matthew Marquardt: Has built an impressive season around victory in South Africa and seconds at Lake Placid and Kalmar. Those results earn him a place among the main challengers, but he will need the race of his life if he is to become the first American man to win at Kona since Tim DeBoom’s 2001, 2002 double.

The danger zone

Magnus Ditlev: Second at Kona in 2024, Ditlev has already demonstrated that his formidable bike strength can underpin a Hawaii title challenge. Sixth at Roth and 11th at the shortened Frankfurt race this season temper expectations, placing him among the dangerous contenders with something to prove.

Menno Koolhaas: Fifth at Kona in 2024 and fourth at Roth this summer, Koolhaas combines course experience with convincing full-distance form. His 2:30:33 Roth marathon makes him a credible threat, although winning would require another step forward in a career with just one victory in the last three seasons.

Patrick Lange: Three Kona titles make Lange the most accomplished Hawaii racer in our selection, while a 2:32:25 marathon at Roth shows his running remains a weapon. He may be past his best and looking forward to retirement, but what a story it would be if he could conjure something up in his final Kona race.

The party crasher

Trevor Foley: Foley’s New Zealand victory, featuring a 2:35:42 marathon, and win at 70.3 Pennsylvania demonstrate the speed behind our wildcard selection. His 2024 DNF came at the end of the bike when he crashed while very much in the mix, and, like Marquardt, he will be looking to end the wait for a US male winner.

Click here for our verdict on the women’s race.