The 247 Endurance ‘Daily Split’ team – click here to subscribe to our free newsletter if you haven’t already – have crunched the numbers and weighed up the form to give their verdict on two compelling IRONMAN World Championships in Kona this weekend.

Reputation alone wasn’t enough: athletes needed results to support their case… Although it has to be said that the heart did rule the head on one or two of our picks, as ‘gut feeling’ also nudged its way into the equation.

First up are the ten athletes who we think can challenge for honours in the women’s race on Saturday. Broken up into three distinct groups, which determine their level of potential, we have the ‘Crown Chasers’, ‘The Glory Hunters’, and those who reside in the ‘Danger Zone’… while there is also a potential party crasher added in – you know, that one athlete who you just can’t seem to shake a feeling about.

The crown chasers

Solveig Løvseth: The defending Kona champion has reinforced her credentials with victories at Texas and Hamburg, followed by fourth at 70.3 Worlds. Proven success in Hawaii and outstanding full-distance form make the Norwegian a huge favourite to follow up last year’s shock win with a much-desired second title.

Taylor Knibb: Knibb arrives as the newly crowned 70.3 world champion, while she also displayed her full-distance credentials with a second place at Texas behind Solveig Løvseth earlier in the season. Her fourth-place finish at Kona in 2023 showed potential; her collapse last year will fuel her fire for better this time around.

Lucy Charles-Barclay: A Lanzarote victory and second place at Roth show Charles-Barclay remains a major force over the full distance. Her 2023 Kona title and four runner-up finishes provide exceptional Hawaii pedigree, despite last year’s DNF. That blow-out, just as with Knibb, will make her want this title all the more.

The glory hunters

Laura Philipp: Philipp’s victories at Kalmar and Zell am See, alongside a second at Hamburg, demonstrate strong form heading into Kona. The 2024 world champion has twice finished third in Hawaii, making her one of the most convincing threats to our leading trio. So close to making it into the top category.

Kat Matthews: Matthews came within 35 seconds of winning Kona last year, producing a remarkable 2:47:23 marathon in the process. Victory in New Zealand confirms her capabilities, but fourth at Roth and 11th at 70.3 Worlds leaves her recent form slightly behind the top bracket as an Achilles injury continues to bother her.

Julie Derron: The world No.2 has won IRONMAN Switzerland and Vancouver T100 this season, while also taking silver at the 70.3 Worlds with a 1:13:04 run. That combination makes her a serious challenger, with her lack of Kona experience the principal reason for keeping her outside the leading three.

The danger zone

Hannah Berry: Fourth in Kona last year, Berry has already shown she can deliver against the strongest field in Hawaii. Second at New Zealand and September’s Sunshine Coast 70.3 victory support her inclusion, although her seventh at a stacked Texas highlights the improvement needed to challenge for the title.

Lisa Perterer: Perterer’s fifth place on her Kona debut last year gives her a solid foundation for another strong Hawaii performance. Fifth at Hamburg and Lake Placid, followed by second at Zell am See, point towards a consistent contender capable of capitalising if the favourites falter.

Marjolaine Pierré: Pierré’s fifth place at the 70.3 Worlds, victory at Pays d’Aix and fourth at Hamburg demonstrate the form to trouble bigger names. Fourth at the 2024 Worlds in Nice establishes her championship credentials, but 32nd in Kona last year leaves questions over her Hawaii suitability.

The party crasher

Paula Findlay: Findlay won her full-distance debut at Lake Placid with a 2:55:49 marathon, adding to a season that includes victory at 70.3 Pennsylvania and fourth at Vancouver T100. The world No.12 has the credentials to surprise, but one IRONMAN finish and no previous Kona start make her a fascinating wildcard.

Click here for our verdict on the men’s race.