Gustav Iden has a clear picture of his perfect race at Saturday’s IRONMAN World Championship: spend most of the day chasing, then take the lead with just two kilometres remaining.

The Norwegian knows how effective a late pursuit can be in Kona. In 2022, he overhauled Sam Laidlow on the marathon to win on his debut there, with compatriot Kristian Blummenfelt completing the podium.

Four years later, Iden believes the same three athletes could occupy those places again.

Speaking to TRI247’s Laura Siddall in Kona, he backed Laidlow to make another major impact – but again be part of a Norwegian sandwich on the podium.

It was a clean sweep of course for the Norwegians in the IMWC in Nice last year, but defending champion Casper Stornes is ruled out this time following his training crash.

‘Sam will be dangerous yet again’

Laidlow’s attacking instincts and ability to deliver on major occasions make him a formidable opponent in Iden’s eyes.

The Frenchman won Challenge Roth this summer and returns to Hawaii seeking to add a Kona victory to the world title he claimed in Nice in 2023.

“Sam will be dangerous yet again,” Iden said.

“His performance in Roth was strong and I think he’s prepared well for this race.

“He’s a guy who loves the big occasions and taking big risks, and I think once again the big risk will land him on the podium.”

‘Snatch the victory towards the very end’

Iden though is again planning to save his time at the front for the closing stages.

“I don’t want to lead it for too long,” he explained. “I think taking the victory in the last 2k is more than enough.

“It is the best way to do it, I think. Just chase the whole day and then snatch the victory towards the very end.”

It is a scenario that fits his most memorable Kona performance, when his marathon pursuit eventually brought him past Laidlow to claim that 2022 crown.

But the sport and its tactics have continued to evolve since then, and Iden recognises that this year’s contest could demand a different response.

RELATED CONTENT: Our men’s power rankings place Iden, Blummenfelt and Laidlow among the leading contenders for Saturday’s title.

Readiness rather than fitness

Iden arrives after finishing fourth at September’s IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship in Nice, an encouraging performance as he prepared for the return to full-distance racing.

He believes the underlying fitness was already established through that race and a strong training block in St Moritz. The final task has been making sure he is ready to use it in Kona.

“I would say the fitness is rising slowly – or not the fitness, maybe more the readiness.

“The fitness was already there with a pretty decent fourth place in Nice and a really good training block in St Moritz.

“I don’t think you can increase the fitness too much now,” he added.

Blummenfelt’s ‘calm confidence’

Training alongside Blummenfelt gives Iden a close view of another of the race’s leading contenders.

Asked about his compatriot’s confidence, he described an athlete who was already eager to get racing.

“Kristian now has the more calm confidence and he just wants to get the race over with,” Iden said.

“I think he’s ready to go now.”

Iden, by contrast, felt he still needed the remaining days before the championship to complete his own preparation.

“I need these last five, six days to really get ready,” he explained.

“A few more tweaks I have to do, a little bit of fine-tuning.”

The distinction is between two athletes preparing for the same objective at slightly different speeds – and who could ultimately find themselves battling each other for victory.

Kona’s growing ‘high risk, high reward’

Looking back to 2022, Iden sees a sport that has become more aggressive in several respects.

“I think the focus on aero is even more now,” he said. “People have more aggressive positions and more aggressive cooling strategies.

“And in general, more aggressive. So I think that is a big change.”

The potential rewards are obvious, but so are the consequences when an athlete pushes beyond what they can sustain.

Iden pointed to the last men’s race in Kona in 2024, when several contenders struggled on the marathon – himself included.

“If you look at the last race here in ’24, there were so many blow-ups on the run,” he said.

“I was one of them, and I didn’t even race aggressively. I was just so badly prepared.”

That candid assessment helps explain why he places such importance on the final work before Saturday.

“I think aggressiveness could give you the victory. It could give you a podium, but it could also give you a DNF or close to DNF.

“So I think this high risk, high reward is kind of new to IRONMAN.”

Laidlow may be one of the athletes most willing to take those risks. Iden’s ideal outcome is to remain close enough to make his own decisive move when the finish is almost in sight.