Olympic Games Triathlon: Stats suggest Lombardi could shake up the big two in women’s race

Is the women’s race at the Olympics all about Beth Potter vs Cassandre Beaugrand?

They are the clear favourites with the bookmakers – and can barely be split. Even our ‘top trumps’ data dive with stats guru Graeme Acheson of Sports4Cast only served to underline the tight margins.

Britain’s Potter, the reigning World Champion, held the upper hand between the pair last year.

But home favourite Beaugrand has struck back this season, winning her last two races as Potter finished third.

And they are both 2/1 chances with the oddsmakers (+200 in US parlance), which gives each of them a 33% chance.

Not just a two-horse race?

But unlike the men’s race where it’s 10/1 (+1000) and upwards bar Alex Yee and Hayden Wilde, it’s a closer call for the women.

Reigning Olympic champion Flora Duffy is no bigger than 6/1 (+600) despite her form being hard to weigh up after limited racing in the last two years because of injury. She’s as short as 9/2 (+450) in places.

France’s Emma Lombardi (more about her later) comes next at 7/1 (+700) but there’s split opinion about US star Taylor Knibb.

Virtually unbeatable at middle distance, can she get in the mix over this shorter trip? Before then she’ll be in action in the women’s road cycling time trial on Saturday so maybe that’s added to the different viewpoints.

Knibb is 6/1 (+600) with some firms but double the price at 12/1 (+1200) elsewhere.

That’s the same price as Tokyo silver medallist Georgia Taylor-Brown who, like Duffy, has returned from injury this season.

Keep eye on Tertsch – and Lombardi

Market moves are thin on the ground so far – but there has been one.

And that’s around Germany’s Lisa Tertsch, who has split the ‘big two’ of Beaugrand and Potter in her last two races.

She was 25/1 (+2500) a week ago but is now no bigger than 14/1 (+1400). Is she running into form at just the right time?

As mentioned above Graeme Acheson has been helping us with the analysis ahead of the Olympics and he’s keen on the chances of Lombardi.

He told us: “The fastest overall swim average is actually Emma Lombardi, who averages 19:22 over the 1500m distance – an average pace of 1:17min/100m.

“The best biker on average is (again!) Emma Lombardi, averaging a monstrous 58:42 (40.9kph) over her 12 or so Olympic distance races.

“And the fastest average of these athletes again comes from the (statistically indomitable!) Emma Lombardi with an average time of 33:47 for her 12 standard distance events.

“She has the fastest average times overall too. It is quite remarkable to hold all the fastest average times across all disciplines, and it is over 12 events which is a reasonable sample size as well. Personally, I’d be surprised if she challenged for the gold but she has home advantage and given her times is therefore definitely one to watch out for.”

For more clues why not check out TRI247 Chief Correspondent John Levison’s podium predictions piece.

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