Many pundits can’t separate them – and nor can the bookmakers – but who’s your money on in what promises to be an epic women’s showdown at the Olympics in Paris on Wednesday?
Before we delve into their swim, bike and run credentials, recent form and previous battles we have to acknowledge that the women’s race definitely isn’t just about France’s big hope Cassandre Beaugrand and reigning World Champion Beth Potter.
Olympic champion Flora Duffy is back from injury as is the woman who chased her home in Tokyo, Georgia Taylor-Brown.
France have two other darts to fire in Emma Lombardi and Leonie Periault, the United States will be looking to the two Taylors, Knibb and Spivey, while Germany have super strong claims too.
But as Taylor-Brown told us earlier this week, the dynamics of women’s short-course racing have changed in the last couple of seasons – and it’s invariably been Beaugrand or Potter at the front of the race when it matters.
So with thanks to stats guru Graeme Acheson of Sports4Cast for the deep-dive data analysis in this piece, how do they stack up against each other?
He’s looked at around 750,000 Olympic-distance results to generate the data and come up with an overall average for each athlete in each discipline, their fastest-ever time for swim, bike and run – and then a ‘form’ indication, which is their average time since the start of 2023. So let’s dive in…
Swim: Beaugrand 9.5/10, Potter 8.5/10
Acheson says: “The interesting thing to draw out here might be the difference between the two favourites. There’s a reasonable, although not massive difference, between their average swim times – 10 seconds between Cass’s 19:27 and Beth’s 19:37 – and more between their last 18 months at 20 seconds.
“However, there is a large difference between their fastest times, suggesting that Cass has a higher potential in this discipline. If she gets it right, she could take significant time out of Beth here.”
As we point out in our in-depth course guide, there is a real chance for the swim to split things up given the strong currents in the River Seine.
That’s what happened in the Paris Test Event last year and Acheson adds: “One to watch out for is how much time, if any, Beaugrand can take out of Potter here. Indeed given their respective differences in other disciplines (covered below) this may be her best chance for the gold on home turf – get out early in the swim, and maintain it throughout the bike and run.”
We should point out that Potter had a swim background as a youngster (before she became a runner) but given Graeme’s figures and the fact that Beaugrand is one of the very best around, she has to get the nod in this category.
Bike: Beaugrand 7.5/10, Potter 9/10
Whereas the big two in the men’s race – Alex Yee and Hayden Wilde – are well matched in all three disciplines, it’s a different story here.
Acheson explains: “The difference between Beth and Cassandre is significant in this discipline too, over two minutes. The bike is hard to draw direct comparisons, due to the quite large differences in courses and technical requirements, but it is still interesting.
“Cass may have her work cut out to stay with Beth if there is a breakaway, and likewise if Beth is trying to make up time on Cass then she has the firepower to potentially make up ground.”
And we’ve seen that in the past from Super League up to Olympic distance, with question marks against Beaugrand – especially when conditions become testing.
She’s trained at Loughborough in recent times to work hard on that and the good news for the home favourite is a very favourable weather forecast, meaning the cobbles shouldn’t be wet.
Run: Beaugrand 9.5/10, Potter 10/10
These two have always been outstanding runners.
The difference now is that they are usually in the front pack coming out of T2 rather than having to chase from behind, so no wonder they’ve racked up the wins.
That’s echoed by Acheson who says: “No surprises here with the top two in recent months! Beth and Cassandre at the top of the tree, but Beth is again the faster of the two, beating Cass out by over 20 seconds on average at just over 33 minutes (3:18min/km) for her 10ks compared to 33:30 for Cassandre.”
Transitions: Beaugrand 8.5/10, Potter 10/10
The fourth discipline and the super-short Super League / supertri / indoor Arena Games formats that these two have thrived in have been a great battleground to hone their transitions.
And in a race of fine margins, could this be decisive?
Graeme Acheson points out: “Beth is the transition queen. That’s where she generally wins those sorts of races.
“She is the fastest of both women and men.
“Cass is more in the middle ground – but generally we see supertri athletes and especially the ‘e’ (indoor ‘virtual reality’) athletes much faster than ‘normal’ triathletes. So Cass will have an advantage over many others through being a regular supertri competitor.”
One obvious example of that could be someone like Taylor Knibb, pretty much unbeatable at middle distance but, until now, relatively off the pace in T1 and T2 at WTCS / Olympic level.
Form leading into Paris: Beaugrand 10/10, Potter 9/10
Both essentially qualified last year, making their build ups way easier and more controlled than many others we could mention.
There is no doubt that Potter had the edge in 2023 – she won the Test Event ahead of Beaugrand and it was a similar story when she was crowned World Champion at the WTCS Grand Final in Pontevedra, cramping on the run costing the French star on both occasions.
But it’s turned around this season, with Beaugrand winning both WTCS Cagliari and WTCS Hamburg, with Potter third each time and Germany’s Lisa Tertsch splitting the pair.
That Cagliari performance could be hugely significant and timely too – Cass’ first WTCS victory over the Olympic distance.
Beth spoke this week about having now found what was “missing” on the run and sickness in the build up so both could argue mitigating circumstances for their reverses over the last two years but on recent form, you have to score Beaugrand higher.
Head-to-head: Beaugrand 9.5/10, Potter 9/10
These two have made giant strides in the last couple of seasons, especially Potter and in truth it’s again hard to split them with the score 4-3 in Beaugrand’s favour since Tokyo.
Over Olympic distance since Tokyo (Beaugrand result first/Potter second)…
2024
- WTCS Cagliari – 1st/3rd
2023
- WTCS Grand Final Pontevedra – 3rd/1st
- Paris Test Event – 2nd/1st
- WTCS Cagliari – 4th/6th
2022
- WTCS Grand Final Abu Dhabi – 10th/32nd
- WTCS Cagliari – 8th/10th
- WTCS Yokohama 2022 – DNF/11th
Final verdict: Beaugrand 54.5/60, Potter 55.5/60
The scores show how tight it could be – could the two transitions even make the difference?
Every single bookmaker at the time of writing has them at the same price, most going 2/1 which gives them each a 33% chance of gold.
It may be controversial but we’re also going to throw in one other factor.
We spoke to Potter on Tuesday afternoon and the steely determination was clear. She said she’s been working with double Olympic champion Alistair Brownlee on “covering all eventualities” and that she “enjoys the pressure” and “having a target on her back”.
Beaugrand’s actions and words merit complete respect too but might the expectation of the home crowd work against her? It’s something we spoke to the legendary Michael Johnson about late last year and few have demonstrated better how to use it as a positive than his remarkable displays at Atlanta 1996.
With regards to all the French athletes, he told me it can be a double-edged sword, saying: “It increases pressure, it motivates you, it increases expectations – it does all of those things.”
And after her win at Hamburg recently you could take this quote either way:” I will try my best in Paris but it will not be the end of my career if I don’t do well. And I love to be pushed by the crowds, so this [Hamburg] is a good rehearsal of what Paris can be.”
We’ll find out on Wednesday, it should be a classic!
And in the meantime check out TRI247 Chief Correspondent John Levison’s verdict of the 1-2-3.
![Cassandre Beaugrand Beth Potter Laura Lindemann Paris Test Event podium 2023 [Photo credit: World Triathlon / Wagner Araujo]](https://www.tri247.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Cassandre-Beaugrand-Beth-Potter-Laura-Lindemann-Paris-Test-Event-2023.jpg)
