The experts are struggling to pick a clear favourite for Saturday’s IRONMAN World Championship – but the bookmakers have made Kristian Blummenfelt their market leader.
That echoes our Chief Correspondent John Levison who has picked ‘Big Blu’ – as has two-time Kona winner Chris McCormack.
But Mark Allen, who triumphed in Hawaii on no fewer than six occasions, reckons Magnus Ditlev will come out on top while double Olympic champion Alistair Brownlee says defending champion Sam Laidlow “will be hard to beat”.
Big Blu: big chance?
But money talks for the oddsmakers and a few hours after releasing their prices, it’s Blummenfelt who heads Sky Bet’s list at 9/4. In US parlance that’s +225 and in terms of an implied probability it gives the Norwegian great a near 31% chance of a first Kona win to go with his IMWC triumph in St George a couple of years ago.
Next comes Laidlow, runner-up in Kona in 2022 and an impressive winner in Nice last year. He’s 11/4 to retain his crown which is +275 and close to 27%.
Then it’s Ditlev, who arrives in Kona on the back of bettering his own world record full-distance time at Challenge Roth this summer. He’s rated a 4/1 hope (+400, 20%).
Those three big guns dominate the market – it’s 8/1 bar the trio which brings in Gustav Iden, who notched a course record time when winning at Kona two years ago but by his own admission isn’t yet in that sort of form again after a challenging couple of years.
Another man who knows what it takes to win on the Big Island is 2017 and 2018 hero Patrick Lange. The German is a 10/1 chance (+1000, 9%) for a third victory, the same price as Spain’s Antonio Benito Lopez, who has won four of his five races this year.
No Limits: no chance?
But there are some big prices further down the list. Rudy von Berg is the shortest priced American at 14/1 (+1400, 7%) while the ever-popular Lionel Sanders might be tempting at 50/1 (+5000, 2%) to his legion of fans.
As well as being 50/1 for a first Kona triumph, ‘No Limits’ is also rated a 12/1 shot (+1200, 8%) to get onto the podium as he’s done in two of the last six IRONMAN World Championships.
![lionel sanders wins oceanside 2024 [Photo credit: Donald Miralle / IRONMAN]](https://www.tri247.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/lionel-sanders-wins-oceanside-2024.jpg)
Those prices in full
Here’s how Sky Bet price up Saturday’s fascinating showdown…
| Athlete | To win race | To finish top 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Kristian Blummenfelt | 9/4 | 4/9 |
| Sam Laidlow | 11/4 | 4/7 |
| Magnus Ditlev | 4/1 | 4/5 |
| Gustav Iden | 8/1 | 2/1 |
| Antonio Benito Lopez | 10/1 | 5/2 |
| Patrick Lange | 10/1 | 5/2 |
| Rudy von Berg | 14/1 | 7/2 |
| Gregory Barnaby | 18/1 | 9/2 |
| Clement Mignon | 20/1 | 5/1 |
| Leon Chevalier | 20/1 | 5/1 |
| Daniel Baekkegard | 25/1 | 6/1 |
| Kieran Lindars | 25/1 | 6/1 |
| Menno Koolhaas | 25/1 | 6/1 |
| Braden Currie | 33/1 | 8/1 |
| Matthew Marquardt | 33/1 | 8/1 |
| Trevor Foley | 33/1 | 8/1 |
| Cameron Wurf | 50/1 | 12/1 |
| David McNamee | 50/1 | 12/1 |
| Lionel Sanders | 50/1 | 12/1 |
| Ben Kanute | 66/1 | 16/1 |
| Denis Chevrot | 66/1 | 16/1 |
| Kacper Stepniak | 66/1 | 16/1 |
| Matt Hanson | 66/1 | 16/1 |
| Bradley Weiss | 80/1 | 20/1 |
| Kristian Hogenhaug | 100/1 | 25/1 |
| Matt Burton | 100/1 | 25/1 |
| Pieter Heemeryck | 100/1 | 25/1 |
| Robert Wilkowiecki | 100/1 | 25/1 |
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