Mark Allen reigned SIX TIMES as IRONMAN World Champion in Kona – there are few better qualified to talk about what goes down on the Big Island of Hawaii in October.
This coming Saturday (October 26) the 2024 renewal of the most iconic race in triathlon will play out for a stellar field of Pro Men, and Allen is absolutely pumped.
He expects a ‘testosterone fest’ with ‘dudes frothing’ after a two-year wait for this, thanks to the Kona/Nice split implemented by IRONMAN in the wake of logistical issues in Hawaii back in 2022.
He sat down with TRI247 to assess the men contending for the biggest prize in the sport, and to pick a winner.
Kona 2024 – the major contenders
There are six names in the melting pot as we head deeper into race week – here is the Mark Allen verdict on them all:
Kristian Blummenfelt
“Kristian is a very unique character as we all know. He seems to race quite well when he’s had disappointments. I don’t think he is going to look back at Paris and go ‘wow, I did so amazing’. I think he’s going to look at it and say: ‘Alright, that was nowhere near what I had planned on being able to do’. He had this frothing, fierce finish to win gold in Tokyo, and he didn’t do it again, he didn’t defend so I think he’s probably got a lot of motivation to really do well in Hawaii.
“One, he hasn’t won in Hawaii. Secondly he is coming off the heels of Paris, and a lot of people might go ‘well he was focused on short-distance racing and now he’s doing an Ironman?’
“Well, first of all probably his short-distance training load was very, very high anway, so to bump up to Ironman training probably isn’t a big step for him. Secondly, it’s much easier in my opinion as an athlete and coach to go from super-fit Olympic distance to Ironman than it is from Ironman down to super-fast Olympic distance. Because you have this massive VO2 engine built from doing the high intensity work required for Olympic distance racing. And Blu’s VO2 max is already off the charts, and so I can only imagine what it is now.
“You take that huge VO2 capacity, that ability to get in a ton of oxygen and you translate that into longer endurance aerobic training, you’re training at a really fast pace and you’re going to get really fit really quickly – very different than somebody who is just coming into shape with a lower VO2 max and they’re trying to build both of those things at the same time.
“So I think he’s probably going to have a really good race here. After that Ironman [in Frankfurt] it showed he’s ready to go that distance.”
Patrick Lange
“Patrick Lange is a question mark. A number of people, when I was in Nice for the IRONMAN World Championship, were saying they think he’s actually going to have a really good race in Kona this year. The underground guys who are keeping track of him, who are there, seeing what he’s doing, knowing what he’s doing, knowing how he’s raced and all that.
“Even if he doesn’t have a win or a top three, I think he’s got that desire to go sub 2:30 on the marathon. So even if he doesn’t win, maybe we will see a sub 2:30 marathon, which would be kind of like one of those 27-year split times that stays on the record books for quite a while.
“The interesting thing in my opinion – I think the super shoes have helped some of the less talented runners more than the talented runners. It’s almost when you throw in a wetsuit, that helps the less talented swimmer more than the talented swimmer.
“Just looking at some of the splits of guys compared to what they maybe had done in the past, it helped Patrick for sure I would say – some of the times he’s been running are phenomenal – but I think it’s helped guys who are maybe a little bit slower running, more than him. Which when it comes to first, second or third, makes it a little more difficult for a really good runner.
“So don’t count him out, but also, unless the dynamic is just right and he can feed off the train of a pack, I think it will be hard for him to be top three.”
Sam Laidlow
“Sam Laidlow in 2022 set a course record on the bike, had it not been for Gustav Iden he would have been the IRONMAN World Champ. Obviously last year, incredible race in Nice, and a lot of people were saying he won the race on the bike, and I’ll actually counter that a little bit and I’ll say he won the race because he had a really solid marathon.
“Yes he got ahead on the bike, but had he had a crappy marathon he would have been caught, Patrick would have caught him. He wasn’t invincible. But he had a good run, he had a really good run.
“Looking at this year, in the past he’s had some inconsistencies – races that he was supposed to be in and he didn’t show up because of personal reasons or he got sick – all these little hiccups along the way. As far as I’ve seen, he hasn’t had any of those this year and so I think he’s set for a really good race because he’s been consistent.
“And looking at what he did in Ibiza, he looked fit. He didn’t win but so what, I’m sure he’s like 100% Kona because if he wins in Kona, he will be the first IRONMAN World Champion to win in Nice and Kona.”
Lionel Sanders
“Lionel, He’s a wild card, he’s dedicated his whole year to Kona – he’s really been under the radar a lot this year. He won in Oceanside looking awesome, 70.3 in the spring. But we haven’t seen much of him this year, and I think that’s probably a good thing. He hasn’t been going out there having these head-to-head matches and all these other races with anybody, the way he has done sometimes in the past. So he’s pretty focused, obviously. And definitely somebody that is at that point of his career where it’s like ‘I don’t have a lot of tomorrows’. If he doesn’t win this year, it’s two more years before he gets a chance to try and win in Hawaii.”
Magnus Ditlev
“Magnus, He’s clearly a big-race racer, he can put it together when it matters. Something that is in his favour this year, last year in Nice last year he didn’t have the best day that he was capable of, but Nice was in September and so that put him much closer to Challenge Roth.
“This year, Ironman is not only in October but it’s two weeks later than it’s ever been in current history terms. And so he’s had probably six weeks more of buffer between Roth and Hawaii, which I think probably will play well in his favour. He was probably able to really take enough downtime, regroup, rebuild, get ready and all that kind of stuff.
“A big-race racer for sure, a huge engine on the bike, and as big as he is, he can lope along with the best of giraffes and put together a great marathon.”
Gustav Iden
“I think a great day for him would be if he’s able to stay in the mix, kind of towards the front of the bike, and then put together somewhat of a decent marathon. He won’t be the fastest, but I think he’s even going to struggle to stay up there on the bike to be honest. Unless he just goes completely berserk on the bike and doesn’t care about the run – which he could do to sort of like go ‘okay, I’m back but I had a bad marathon’.
“Sometimes athletes will do that, they know that they don’t have a chance in hell of really doing well so they’ll completely blow themselves on the bike and then have a s****y marathon and go ‘oh well you know, I was up there on the bike but I just fell apart on the run’. So you still look like you’re part of the world-class mix when in reality when you raced for the early glory knowing there was no chance.
“If he gets 7th or 8th and has a great personal performance for where he’s at, but he’s not ever in the mix, there won’t be much talk. So I don’t know, like I said I think of all the past champs he’s got the biggest road to go to have a decent race.”
Mark Allen pick to win Kona 2024
So now the analysis is done, who wins? This is the Mark Allen big-race verdict:
“I’m gonna say Magnus. And I haven’t heard a lot of people talking about him. I think if everything plays out as I kind of see it, I think Sam will be really hard to beat – just because he’s got that sort of f*** you I’m the best attitude, kind of thing. And he’s shown that he can race really well in Kona, he did that two years ago. And I’m sure he’s a better athlete and more fit than he was two years ago so he’ll be tough to beat. But I’ll give the slight nod to Magnus.”
