TRI247
Search
shop

IRONMAN Kona 2024: TRI247 World Championship predictions and podium picks

After two years away, the Pro Men return to the IRONMAN World Championship in Kona, Hawaii. John Levison outlines his favourites and podium selections
Chief Correspondent
Last updated -
SHOP

It’s that time of year again – well actually, it’s two weeks later than the normal ‘second Saturday in October’ – but the IRONMAN World Championship from Kailua-Kona, Hawaii is back again this coming Saturday, 26 October. Full details on timings, logistics and how to watch in our pre-race explainer.

We are now into year two of the separation of the men’s / women’s IRONMAN World Championship events – with Laura Philipp winning last month in Nice, France – and so it is the turn of the men, who return to the Big Island for the first time since Gustav Iden took the victory in record time, two years ago.

Who will take the title this year then? Let’s try and give that a go here.

Advertisement

The Potential Winners

If you are remotely close to the sport, there are probably five / six / seven names that you’ll be expecting to see referenced in this article. On that front, I’m probably not going to deviate too far from the general consensus. However, while a few of those talents will surely play a key part in Saturday’s racing and be challenging for the podium, it’s my opinion that one of only three men can WIN.

Time will tell on that score, but my aim is not to simply present a ‘contenders’ list and sit on the metaphorical fence. First then I’ll outline my three picks from which I think the winner will come from.

Sam Laidlow (France)

The defending champion from Nice last year, Laidlow was also hugely impressive – and just 23 at the time – when holding the lead until mile-23 of the marathon – and fending off Kristian Blummenfelt in the process, to take second place at Kona in 2022. Two years on, and with additional confidence from that win in France last year, he has to be in the mix.

His swim is bullet-proof, and he is certainly not lacking speed or confidence on the bike either, with shorter-distance efforts at T100 races in London (win) and Ibiza (second) in July and September, respectively, indicating his form is building nicely. His only full distance race was that finish /disqualification drama at IRONMAN Vitoria-Gasteiz in July, so he doesn’t have a highlight reel performance over the 140.6 miles that my other two ‘favourites’ picks have this season – but having navigated that validation hurdle, I don’t think that will be important this weekend.

One card he won’t have this year versus two years ago, is an element of surprise. While a talented athlete with some strong results on his C.V. at the time, there were also several ‘blow up on the run’ moments too. If (?) he was given any leeway with that expectation from the Norwegians then, it’s not a card he’ll be able to call upon this time around. Of course, that’s assuming they could have gone with his bike pace anyway.

sam-laidlow-kona-2022-run-finish
(Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images for IRONMAN)
Advertisement

Magnus Ditlev (Denmark)

The king of Challenge Roth, the Great Dane won in Bavaria for a third consecutive season in July, improving once again on his 2023 record figures.

In Hawaii for only the second time in his young career (he turns 27 just five days after the race), he’ll have a little bit of redemption on his mind, with that eighth place in 2022 impacted by a five minute drafting penalty late in the race. More than that perhaps, that experience could prove vital second time around, with familiarity with the course, the island, the conditions and race dynamics.

Ditlev is an athlete who chooses his battles wisely and doesn’t over race. Winner at T100 Miami, two further T100 fourth places finishes (San Francisco and Miami) see him sit in second place in that particular points race, but he has been all-in on his Kona focus since the end of July.

It’s difficult to think of Magnus’ skillset without referencing his cycling (the PTO’s database rates him at #1), but arguably it is his development elsewhere that has taken him from potential to serial winner. In Kona two years ago, he was around 90 seconds down on the leaders exiting the opening 2.4-mile ocean swim, but he’s also shown several times elsewhere that he can be in that ‘back of the front pack’ zone, perhaps 20 or so seconds in arrears. Aside from being an unwelcome sight for his competitors who know what’s coming next, it can put him in prime position from the early miles of the bike, and reduce the potential impacts of things like drafting penalties and unwanted surges on the bike in those crowded early miles.

If he can achieve that on Saturday, he could provide the biggest risk or indeed the biggest advantage to Sam Laidlow (depending on your take), as all logic suggests that they want to gain an advantage starting the run. Is a Laidlow / Ditlev bike breakaway – perhaps aided by a bike speedster like Robert Kallin – their route to success?

magnus-ditlev-kona-2022-bike-2
(Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images for IRONMAN)

Kristian Blummenfelt (Norway)

Still sore from his Paris Olympic Games ‘failure’, it’s not just disappointment at not retaining his Olympic title that motivates the legend from Bergen. “It hurts more to lose” is the tagline on his bike and clothing, and he is absolutely still frustrated with his third place finish in 2022. Big Blu does not race for bronze; “I don’t want to wait another two years to get my revenge, let’s get it this year”, was his unfinished business take on the race this year. He means it.

Thoughts that short-course preparations might make his Hawaii ambitions a bridge too far this season at least with a tight turnaround were mostly silenced with an IRONMAN Frankfurt effort – for victory – 13 days after the Mixed Team Relay in the French capital. It was a performance which highlighted his specific preps for Paris were not quite right… but as a result, that his Kona base was a lot further advanced than expected. There’s been just one further race since, which was a dominant win in a small but high-quality field at Challenge Samarkand in Uzbekistan, with all eyes otherwise on Kona redemption. Given the Paris focus, those extra two weeks I mentioned in the introduction, should absolutely play into his hands.

As headline-grabbing as that Frankfurt race was, I can only see him being significantly better on Saturday. Still only 30 himself, that makes Blummenfelt the veteran of my trio.

Kristian Blummenfelt finish line IRONMAN Frankfurt 2024 photo credit IRONMAN
Kristian Blummenfelt celebrates another famous win [Photo credit: Getty Images for IRONMAN]

Podium Contenders

Whether brave or foolish, I’m ruling out for victory some serious talent, including the last Kona winner and a two-time Hawaii champion… but that doesn’t mean that can’t feature very strongly or even make the final podium. My key other names to watch are:

Gustav Iden (Norway)

The Kona record holder, winning on debut in 2022, it’s been quite a couple of years for the also two-time IRONMAN World Champion. Indeed, since that sensational win – which he finished off with a 2:36:14 marathon to chase down Sam Laidlow – Iden has only won one race, and a low key one at that, Challenge Turku. His second place at Challenge Samarkand in early September – behind Kristian, but ahead of IRONMAN 70.3 World Champion, Rico Bogen – was a significant step on from that, as he works his way back to his very best.

From half to full distance, and from a small field to the World Championship is a significant jump however. Bearing in mind the openness of the Norwegians – as athletes and coaches – the messaging from both Gustav himself and coach Olav Aleksander Bu is consistent, and that is that aiming for the top step is almost certainly out of reach this time around. I’ve no reason to believe they are playing mind games.

All that said, you don’t achieve what Gustav has done if you are not a class athlete and getting the better of Rico Bogen is a sign of significant progress. I don’t think it will result in a winning position late in the marathon, but a prudent approach could see him even exceed his expectations.

gustav-iden-kona-2022-run-finish
(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images for IRONMAN)

Patrick Lange (Germany)

One of the greatest predictors of Kona success is… having won it before! And that’s where 2017 and 2018 champion, Patrick Lange comes into the mix. While not on the Big Island, Lange showed that his World Championship form is still strong, finishing second last year in Nice, separating Laidlow and Ditlev in the process.

A brilliant runner in the heat, Lange really set the standards for the marathon in Kona for many years, which included 2x 2:39:59 and 2x 2:41.31. On a very different course and circumstances, Lange set a race best 2:32:41 in Nice. Now 38, does he have another big Kona performance left in him?

Perhaps more importantly, have at least some of the field closed the gap, or indeed overtaken, that Kona foot speed making another podium tilt tougher than ever? There’s also a lot of firepower on the bike now, which could leave him with too much to do, even if those sub 2:40 running legs are firing.

Patrick Lange IRONMAN World Championship 2023 Nice finish line celebration
Photo Credit: Donald Miralle for IRONMAN

Rudy Von Berg (USA)

On paper it’s not been a stellar year for the American – his first season without a victory since 2017 – but this race has been part of his family history since he was a young child. While he’s been a lot lower down the T100 standings than he would like, his best result of the season came at Challenge Roth with third. His lead-in to that race was far from perfect either, having crashed in race week after being stung by a bee in training!

Fourth last year on roads he knows extremely well in France, an IRONMAN World Championship top-4 finish has historically been a very good sign for the following season. Along with two impressive IRONMAN victories last year – Texas and Florida – it’s a distance he can perform well at, and that’s why I’m highlighting him as an athlete that could surprise a few people on race day, even if at first glance his 2024 results don’t match those of recent years.

Rudy Von Berg finishing Challenge Roth 2024
Photo Credit: Christoph Raithel / Challenge Roth

Outsiders?

I’ve used a question mark here because, in truth, are any of the following names truly ‘outsiders’? 2022 saw TEN men crack the eight hour barrier in Hawaii, and of those returning who I’ve not mentioned already, that includes the French pairing of Leon Chevalier and Clement Mignon. Just outside that eight hour mark in 11th place was Cameron Wurf (AUS), the multi-talented INEOS Grenadiers rider.

Chevalier has to date raced the IRONMAN World Champs three times, all in different locations, and finished sixth (St George), seventh (Kona) and fifth (Nice). That level of consistency at the IRONMAN distance, is surely a better reflection of his prospects than his T100 season would suggest, where 12th in London has been his best of 2024.

Applying the ‘past results’ approach, Lionel Sanders has two second-place finishes at the IRONMAN World Championship on his C.V., comprising Kona in 2017 and St George in 2022. The ups and downs of the Sanders career need no introduction, having been documented so well for the best part of a decade on YouTube. He declined the T100 season with the goal of finding out what he is capable of in Hawaii, and now aged 36 with two years between races, the clock is ticking. Can he be a factor? Even Forrest Gump might conclude, you never know what you’re gonna get on that one.

Click HERE for the full start list.

lionel sanders wins oceanside 2024 [Photo credit: Donald Miralle / IRONMAN]
Lionel Sanders takes the victory at IRONMAN 70.3 Oceanside [Photo credit: Donald Miralle / IRONMAN]

Kona 2024 Podium Picks

With all that said and done, how do I see it playing out?

I’m actually going to go for all of my top potential winners filling the podium. All have shown the ability to focus on the biggest races, have a great combination of experience and youth, and all seemingly come into this race with the right combination of form and freshness.

For the top step however, while he already has the title once, I think Kristian Blummenfelt is going to add the ‘in Kona’ element to his previous IRONMAN World Championship crown earned in St George, and with the way the race is likely to play out, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if that means new record times being set.

John Levison
Written by
John Levison
TRI247's Chief Correspondent, John has been involved in triathlon for well over 30 years, 15 of those writing on these pages, whilst he can also be found commentating for events across the UK.
Discover more
winter cycling
Winter cycling gear guide – Essential cycling kit and accessories to keep riding all year round
Jonny Brownlee swim pool neom 2022 Photo Bartlomiej Zborowski Superleague Triathlon
Jonny Brownlee on the pool swimming drills to do now to get faster in open water
TRI-FIT Rapid X goggles Jenny Lucas-Hill
TRI-FIT RAPID-X swimming goggles review – A contender for the best swim goggles for pool and open water?
Triathlete riding a time trial bike wearing a Ryzon tri suit
Tri suit buying guide: how to find your perfect tri suit
Two women swimming in cold water with safety gear
Essential Cold Water Swimming Gear & Safety Tips
latest News
Challenge Sir Bani Yas
WILD new triathlon race has a cruise ship, giraffes, hyenas and cheetahs – for real
Canyon Speedmax CF bike
Canyon recalls Speedmax CF bikes over safety concern
Cameron Wurf IRONMAN World Championship Kona 2024 run Photo credit: Getty Images for IRONMAN
Cam Wurf ACES New York Marathon just one week after brutal IRONMAN Kona triathlon slugfest
Sebastien Kienle Challenge Family The Championship 2019
Legend Sebastian Kienle is now an Age Grouper and a winner again, but not in triathlon
The PTO's CEO Sam Renouf
PTO 2.0? Decoding the latest on triathlon’s big bet with Age Groupers and not TV now the key
triathlon on your terms
Never miss out with our triathlon alerts & digest. Get a dose of adventure & inspiration with Boundless.
Invalid email address
The SBRX Group

Proudly elevating endurance sports through content, products & services

SBRX
RUN247
Share to...