Intro from Laura in italics: Who’s going to win?
It’s the question everyone gets asked – and everyone is asking – in Kona this week. The answer usually involves plenty of umming, ahhing, pondering and reconsidering.
Defending men’s champion Casper Stornes is sadly missing after his training crash, while Holly Lawrence and Alanis Siffert are notable absentees on the women’s side. But the depth across both professional fields is extraordinary.
We say it every year, but the 2026 start lists might just be the strongest yet.
Which also explains why the commentary team have struggled to pick their podiums. Personally, I chose my three women and immediately want to add several more. If only the podium could accommodate seven!
For most of us, the picks change daily – if not hourly.
Much of the men’s discussion has centred on the Norwegians and Sam Laidlow. Kristian Blummenfelt, Gustav Iden and Sam have dominated the conversations, although there are plenty of other athletes capable of disrupting that forecast.
For the women, even more names keep coming up.
Lucy Charles-Barclay, Taylor Knibb and Solveig Løvseth all have compelling cases. But then there are Laura Philipp and Kat Matthews. Julie Derron could be very dangerous on her Kona debut.
And don’t forget Chelsea Sodaro, who is flying somewhat under the radar. She won this race in 2022 and deserves to be part of the conversation.
After plenty of deliberation and discussion, the broadcast team finally committed to their selections.
Ask us tomorrow, though, and you might get seven different sets of names!
Who is making the predictions?
Will McCloy: A presenter, commentator and producer who has added so much when calling this season’s biggest races and will do the same this weekend as he guides viewers through Saturday’s racing.
Mirinda “Rinny” Carfrae: The three-time IRONMAN World Champion, renowned for her extraordinary running in Kona, brings her championship experience to the studio.
Craig Alexander: A three-time IRONMAN World Champion and two-time IRONMAN 70.3 World Champion, “Crowie” knows exactly what it takes to win in Hawaii, as do most of this group!
Daniela Ryf: The five-time IRONMAN World Champion also won five 70.3 world titles, making her one of the most decorated athletes in the sport’s history.
Jan Frodeno: The Olympic champion and three-time IRONMAN World Champion joins the studio team to bring his brilliant insights to the party.
Sam Appleton: A 17-time IRONMAN 70.3 winner who will be reporting from the course on the men’s race.
Laura Siddall: A four-time IRONMAN winner who will be reporting from the course on the women’s race — and who gathered these predictions for TRI247.
Women’s Kona podium picks
| Broadcast team member | First 🥇 | Second 🥈 | Third 🥉 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will McCloy | Kat Matthews | Lucy Charles-Barclay | Laura Philipp |
| Mirinda Carfrae | Lucy Charles-Barclay | Solveig Løvseth | Julie Derron |
| Craig Alexander | Solveig Løvseth | Lucy Charles-Barclay | Julie Derron |
| Daniela Ryf | Taylor Knibb | Solveig Løvseth | Julie Derron |
| Jan Frodeno | Lucy Charles-Barclay | Taylor Knibb | Solveig Løvseth |
| Sam Appleton | Taylor Knibb | Lucy Charles-Barclay | Julie Derron |
| Laura Siddall | Taylor Knibb | Lucy Charles-Barclay | Chelsea Sodaro |
Knibb receives three winning selections, Charles-Barclay two, with Løvseth and Matthews getting one each.
Charles-Barclay appears on six of the seven predicted podiums – more than any other woman – while defending champion Løvseth and Kona newcomer Derron feature four times apiece.
McCloy is the only member of the team to select Matthews or Philipp, while Siddall gives Sodaro her sole podium nomination.
Men’s Kona podium picks
| Broadcast team member | First 🥇 | Second 🥈 | Third 🥉 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will McCloy | Gustav Iden | Kristian Blummenfelt | Jonas Schomburg |
| Mirinda Carfrae | Gustav Iden | Kristian Blummenfelt | Vincent Luis |
| Craig Alexander | Kristian Blummenfelt | Sam Laidlow | Gustav Iden |
| Daniela Ryf | Kristian Blummenfelt | Gustav Iden | Jamie Riddle |
| Jan Frodeno | Gustav Iden | Sam Laidlow | Kristian Blummenfelt |
| Sam Appleton | Sam Laidlow | Kristian Blummenfelt | Gustav Iden |
| Laura Siddall | Gustav Iden | Kristian Blummenfelt | Sam Laidlow |
Iden is the most popular winning pick, receiving four selections. Blummenfelt gets two, while Appleton backs Laidlow to take the title.
Both Norwegians appear on every predicted podium, with Laidlow featuring four times.
There are also three intriguing selections beyond that leading trio: McCloy chooses Schomburg for third, Carfrae backs Luis, and Ryf gives Riddle a podium place on his Kona debut.
The predictions are in. Now it’s over to the athletes.
