IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship 2024: PRO Women predictions, podium picks and ones to watch

2024 has featured an everlasting gobstopper of a race calendar, with the T100 Series really kicking things off back in March. And now, finally, the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship in Taupo finishing up what has got to be the busiest year of PRO triathlon racing in recent history.

With a world title, and the last chance to grab valuable (literally) IRONMAN Pro Series points on the line, the PRO women’s start list is stellar. So as some of the world’s fastest female triathletes line up for one last dance before the year is out, who are the top contenders for the win?

For the last time in 2024, it’s time to dust off my crystal ball and attempt to bring you my pre-race predictions.

The top contenders

There are a number of names on the 62-strong PRO women’s start list who could certainly contend for the podium at the 2024 IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship. And with the race coming so late in the year, and happening almost on the other side of the world for a large number of the athletes. If there was ever a race where ‘anything could happen’ this is probably it.

That being said, for me there are four names – based on 2024 performances – who jump out as the women I’d be surprised not to see on the podium or very close to it, and could contend for the win.

A Taylor Knibb three-peat?

Predictably of course, I’ve got to start with Taylor Knibb. 2024 might not have been her year in short course triathlon or time trial cycling at the Paris Olympics. But as far as the middle distance racing goes, her score sheet this year is impeccable with 5 out of 5 race wins.

Knibb’s first place finish at IRONMAN 70.3 Oceanside set the tone for her season, with the USA star winning every single T100 race she’s started in 2024. Given the calibre of the fields, that’s no mean feat. But Taylor has made it look easy, with the race dynamics more often than not coming down to a race for second place rather than first when Knibb is on the start line.

Since 2021 Taylor Knibb has only finished off the podium ONCE in middle/long distance triathlon – and that was a 4^th place at her rookie IRONMAN Kona. She’s also already got two IRONMAN 70.3 World Champion titles to her name, so we know she can perform when it counts.

Can anyone beat Taylor Knibb?

So is Knibb unstoppable? Should I stop typing now and leave it at that? The Knibb factor strikes again. Not quite. Because the question mark for me – and it’s a question that could apply to a huge proportion of those on the start list this weekend – is the fatigue factor. It’s been an incredibly long race season, and Knibb has been balancing all that middle distance dominance with Olympic preparation don’t forget. The toll of that shouldn’t be underestimated. There’s also the old adage of ‘heavy hangs the head that wears the crown.’ Knibb is expected to win, and that’s a lofty amount of pressure.

There’s no doubt that Knibb has the talent and the mentality to be a three-time champion. But after such a long year, and with the strength of the field, we shouldn’t assume it’s a done deal.

Ashleigh Gentle

Ash Gentle came into 2024 with plenty expecting her to continue her reign as the ‘Queen of the 100km’. She finished on the podium at every single race she started in 2023, with a consistent track record of 1^st and 2^nd place finishes over the PTO’s 100km distance.

But hopes of being the inaugural T100 World Champion in 2024 were scuppered for Gentle. She’s gone head to head with Knibb three times this year, and so far hasn’t quite defeated the USA star. But don’t let that fool you into thinking Gentle has had a bad season – far from it. She’s still finished on the podium at 4 out of her 6 middle distance races this year – including wins at Singapore T100 and London T100. And just last month she added yet another Noosa Triathlon win to her score sheet – her 11^th victory at the legendary race, and her 10^th win in a row.

What we’ve seen from Ash Gentle this year is that she’s an athlete who isn’t afraid to go all in and leave it all out on the race course. Coming into Taupo, she’ll surely have some extra fire in her belly for once last showdown with Taylor Knibb. And compared to others on the start sheet, Gentle has a relatively short hop over to New Zealand from Australia which means there’s got to be less chance of long travel-related fatigue and sickness impacting her race.

This will be the first time we’ve seen Gentle at an IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship, and I think she’ll certainly bring some fireworks to the racing.

Kat Matthews

Having finished 2^nd at the 2022 and 2023 IRONMAN 70.3 World Champs, Kat Matthews has got to be on the list of key contenders for the win this year.

Despite an early season injury taking her out of Miami T100, 2024 has shaped up to be a hugely successful year for the British star. Two IRONMAN wins at Texas and Vitoria-Gasteiz followed by a 2^nd place at the IRONMAN World Championship in Nice have shown her strength over the full distance. But a 2^nd place finish at IRONMAN 70.3 Tallinn, plus two podium finishes on the T100 circuit have also demonstrated that long distance success certainly hasn’t come at the cost of middle distance fire power.

Kat Matthews is also one of the most tenacious racers out there. And there’s a strong chance that after such a long race season for all the athletes, success at 70.3 Worlds is going to come down to a battle of wills. You’ll struggle to find an athlete with more mental toughness than Kat. And don’t forget, she’s also tantalisingly close to taking the overall top spot in the IRONMAN Pro Series standings, so it’s all to play for. I certainly wouldn’t bet against Kat taking the win in Taupo this weekend.

Julie Derron

Julie Derron has skyrocketed up the PTO rankings this year, finishing on the podium at every single middle distance race she’s started. That’s included a 2^nd place finish at the last three T100 races in the World Tour series, plus wins at IRONMAN 70.3 Switzerland and Challenge Kaiserwinkl-Walchsee.

And if that doesn’t all sound impressive enough in its own right. Derron has squeezed in all this middle distance success alongside becoming an Olympic silver medallist at the Paris 2024 games. Her incredible run leg saw her beat uber-runner Beth Potter to the finish line behind Cassandre Beaugrand on the streets of Paris.

Derron has shown that she’s an incredibly versatile athlete who can deliver under pressure on a world stage. And the course at Taupo could suit her – the rolling bike course is backed up with a run that features a couple of kickers. Her strong run could be her super power on race day. Could we see Derron chase down Taylor Knibb?

Podium contenders and ones to watch

So I’ve got Taylor Knibb, Ashleigh Gentle, Kat Matthews and Julie Derron as my front runners for the podium in Taupo. But that’s not to say it’s a done deal. Because I think there’s certainly a few other athletes who could flip the script – and potentially even contend for the win. Here are my ones to watch as the action unfolds at the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship this weekend.

Paula Findlay

2022 70.3 Worlds 2^nd place finisher Paula Findlay certainly shouldn’t be counted out of the running for this year’s podium. She perhaps hasn’t had the T100 season she’d have hoped for – and she’s been quite open about finding the travel and the packed schedule tricky on the That Triathlon Life podcast. But her track record over the 70.3 distance this year has seen her bring home two wins and a 3^rd place finish.

Reflecting after the final T100 race, Findlay said on the TTL pod: “I do best in races that I get really excited for […] When I think about New Zealand and 70.3 Worlds in Taupo, I’m excited about that idea and I want to get ready for it and I want to perform well there…”

“I have this huge sense of relief that the Dubai race is done. I’ve put this really big challenge behind me and the outcome is not what I wanted, but I still feel motivated to train and have a good race at World Championships and finish the year on like a bit of a higher note than what I did last weekend.”

The bike course at Taupo is likely to play to Findlay’s strengths – don’t forget she’s Canadian National Time Trial champion and went to UCI Worlds again this year. And we’ve seen that when Paula is mentally in a good place and excited to race, she can be one of the strongest contenders – so don’t count her out.

Ellie Salthouse

Another athlete I want to mention is Ellie Salthouse. She’s an IRONMAN 70.3 specialist, with 5 podiums out of 7 races this year – including 3 wins over the 70.3 distance. Like Ash Gentle, Salthouse has had a shorter journey to Taupo than others on the start list – heading over to NZL from Australia a week or two ago. With only one T100 appearance this season, Salthouse might be showing up to the start line feeling fresher and more ready to go than others which could give her an edge.

Caroline Pohle

2024 seems to have been a break through year for Caroline Pohle, as the German athlete has built on her 2023 success. We’ve seen her take the top step at IRONMAN 70.3 Tallinn, IRONMAN Zell am See, Challenge Barcelona and most recently a 3^rd place finish at IRONMAN 70.3 Bahrain.

She might have finished 34^th at 70.3 Worlds this year, but if her recent form is anything to go by – Caroline Pohle could certainly be right up there this year.

Laura Madsen

For Laura Madsen, 2024 is only her sophomore year in PRO triathlon and her race results so far suggest she could be a rising star to keep an eye on – she’s never finished outside the top 20 in a race. It’s been a busy year for Madsen, with 9 races under her belt already. She told us just before Challenge The Championship back in May that her pre-race strategy involves plenty of pizza, ice cream and listening to One Direction. And that’s a recipe for success it seems. She finished 2^nd in Samorin, and adds wins at IRONMAN 70.3 Valencia, 70.3 Les Sables and Challenge Samarkand to her total of five podium finishes this year.

With two wildcard appearances in the T100 series in recent months, Madsen has picked up vital experience racing against the world’s best, so keep an eye out for her at IRONMAN 70.3 Worlds this weekend.

IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship 2024 Podium Picks

Those are my top contenders and ones to watch. But it’s time to make a decision and make my podium picks. My head says Taylor Knibb is surely going to do the three-peat. But my triathlon fan heart would love to see things play out differently, if anything, just so we get the excitement of a proper battle all the way to the line.

After such a long season, I think it could come down to who’s got the most mental resilience left in the tank come race day. And so I’m backing Kat Matthews for the win, I can see her staying in touch with Taylor on the bike and being able to come through on the run. I think Ash Gentle will be in hot pursuit, with Derron on her heels. And we might see a close battle for the final podium spot.

1^st – Kat Matthews
2^nd – Ash Gentle
3^rd – Taylor Knibb

Of course, I’m now going to sit back and wait for Taylor Knibb to prove me a complete and utter fool! Predicting the win might be a difficult task, but one thing is for sure – it’s going to be an epic race to finish up the 2024 season.

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The 2024 women’s IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship takes place in Taupo, New Zealand on Saturday 14 December starting at 7am local time. That equates to 6pm on Friday 13 December in the UK, and 1pm on Friday 13 December for East Coast USA. Click here to see all the latest news and build-up as we get ready for this year’s IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship.