We’ve heard from the athletes, listened to the podcasters and weighed up the experts’ predictions. But now a bookmaker has put a price on each of the contenders for Saturday’s IRONMAN World Championship in Kona.
Dabble’s markets make Taylor Knibb and Kristian Blummenfelt the favourites to claim the women’s and men’s titles in Hawaii.
But the opening odds have already changed for several athletes, with Gustav Iden, Matthew Marquardt and Trevor Foley shortening in the men’s market, while Sam Laidlow’s price has moved slightly in the opposite direction.
The prices offer a different view of two compelling races – here’s what they mean and how the leading contenders compare.
What do the odds mean?
For readers unfamiliar with betting, the basic principle is straightforward: the lower the odds, the stronger the favourite.
Dabble uses decimal odds. A price of 4.00 is equivalent to 3/1 in fractional odds and represents an implied winning chance of 25%. A price of 10.00 represents 10%.
That percentage is calculated by dividing 100 by the decimal price.
These are the chances implied by the bookmaker’s quoted odds, including its margin, rather than precise forecasts of how likely each athlete is to win. Across a complete market, those percentages will typically add up to more than 100%.
When odds shorten – for example, from 26.00 to 17.00 – the implied chance increases. When they lengthen, it decreases.
Price changes can reflect bets being placed or the bookmaker adjusting its assessment. They do not, on their own, tell us exactly where the money has gone.
The latest prices below were captured on Thursday evening, 8 October, and may change again before race day.
Women: Knibb heads Charles-Barclay and Løvseth
Knibb leads the women’s market at 4.00, an implied winning chance of 25%.
The American arrives as the reigning IRONMAN 70.3 World Champion and is seeking her first full-distance world title after last year’s dramatic late KO in Kona.
Lucy Charles-Barclay is second favourite at 5.00, implying 20%, followed by defending champion Solveig Løvseth at 7.00, or 14.3%.
That ordering differs from our women’s power rankings, where the Daily Split team placed Løvseth first, ahead of Knibb and Charles-Barclay.
Kona debutant Julie Derron is next in the betting at 8.00, followed by Kat Matthews at 9.00.
Laura Philipp and Paula Findlay share a price of 11.00, despite their contrasting levels of full-distance experience: Philipp is a former world champion, while Findlay won her first IRONMAN at Lake Placid and is preparing for only her second start over the distance.
Lisa Perterer follows at 13.00, with Marjolaine Pierré, Marta Sanchez, Daisy Davies and Hannah Berry all priced at 15.00.
Former Kona champion Chelsea Sodaro sits alongside Lotte Wilms and Tamara Jewett at 17.00.
| Athlete | Opening odds | Latest odds | Implied win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Knibb | 4.00 | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| Lucy Charles-Barclay | 5.00 | 5.00 | 20.0% |
| Solveig Løvseth | 7.00 | 7.00 | 14.3% |
| Julie Derron | 8.00 | 8.00 | 12.5% |
| Kat Matthews | 9.00 | 9.00 | 11.1% |
| Laura Philipp | 11.00 | 11.00 | 9.1% |
| Paula Findlay | 11.00 | 11.00 | 9.1% |
| Lisa Perterer | 13.00 | 13.00 | 7.7% |
| Marjolaine Pierré | 15.00 | 15.00 | 6.7% |
| Marta Sanchez | 15.00 | 15.00 | 6.7% |
| Daisy Davies | 15.00 | 15.00 | 6.7% |
| Hannah Berry | 15.00 | 15.00 | 6.7% |
| Chelsea Sodaro | 17.00 | 17.00 | 5.9% |
| Lotte Wilms | 17.00 | 17.00 | 5.9% |
| Tamara Jewett | 17.00 | 17.00 | 5.9% |
Men: Blummenfelt favourite as Iden moves closer
Blummenfelt remains the men’s favourite at 3.50, representing an implied winning chance of 28.6%.
The Norwegian is chasing his first Kona victory, with the additional opportunity to secure the IRONMAN Pro Series title if he gains sufficient time on his closest rivals.
Laidlow remains second favourite, although his price has lengthened from 4.00 to 4.50. That takes his implied chance from 25% to 22.2%.
Iden has moved the other way, shortening from 6.00 to 5.50. The 2022 Kona champion is now outright third favourite, with an implied chance of 18.2%.
Marten Van Riel remains at 6.00, followed by Jonas Schomburg at 11.00 and three-time Kona winner Patrick Lange at 13.00.
Vincent Luis and Magnus Ditlev are both priced at 15.00, with Menno Koolhaas at 17.00.
Our men’s power rankings also identified Blummenfelt, Laidlow and Iden as the leading trio, although Kona’s depth means there are plenty of athletes capable of disrupting that forecast.
Marquardt and Foley among the biggest movers
The largest shortening among the men comes in the shape of two Americans.
Matthew Marquardt has moved from 26.00 to 17.00, increasing his implied winning chance from approximately 3.8% to 5.9%.
That puts him alongside Koolhaas in the latest market, following a season which has included victory at IRONMAN South Africa and runner-up finishes at Lake Placid and Kalmar.
Trevor Foley has shortened from 41.00 to 26.00, taking his implied chance from approximately 2.4% to 3.8%.
The IRONMAN New Zealand winner now shares that price with Cameron Main and Antonio Benito Lopez.
Those are notable changes, although both Americans remain outsiders relative to the leading contenders.
| Athlete | Opening odds | Latest odds | Implied win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kristian Blummenfelt | 3.50 | 3.50 | 28.6% |
| Sam Laidlow | 4.00 | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| Gustav Iden | 6.00 | 5.50 | 18.2% |
| Marten Van Riel | 6.00 | 6.00 | 16.7% |
| Jonas Schomburg | 11.00 | 11.00 | 9.1% |
| Patrick Lange | 13.00 | 13.00 | 7.7% |
| Vincent Luis | 15.00 | 15.00 | 6.7% |
| Magnus Ditlev | 15.00 | 15.00 | 6.7% |
| Menno Koolhaas | 17.00 | 17.00 | 5.9% |
| Matthew Marquardt | 26.00 | 17.00 | 5.9% |
| Cameron Main | 26.00 | 26.00 | 3.8% |
| Antonio Benito Lopez | 26.00 | 26.00 | 3.8% |
| Trevor Foley | 41.00 | 26.00 | 3.8% |
| Brock Hoel | 29.00 | 29.00 | 3.4% |
| Pierre Le Corre | 29.00 | 29.00 | 3.4% |
Another verdict before race day
The markets provide another perspective on a field we have been discussing all week, rather than a definitive answer to who will win.
Knibb heads the women’s betting despite Løvseth’s defending-champion status and strong full-distance season. Blummenfelt leads the men’s market, while Iden’s shortening price brings the 2022 champion closer to Laidlow.
But the final verdicts will come on the course on Saturday.
For the full fields and latest withdrawals, see our men’s start list and women’s start list.
