Search
shop

Thorsten Radde: St George a brave new world as IM WC finally beckons

Respected tri stats guru on the showdown in St George.
News Director
Last updated -
Get the ultimate guide to destination racing

The first big highlight of the 2022 long-distance triathlon season is approaching fast with the 2021 IRONMAN World Championship scheduled for St George on May 7.

As the day of reckoning in Utah draws ever closer, I thought it would be good to let you know why I’m so excited about the Pro races, and why they might be even harder to predict than normal.

St George a brave new world

There are a lot of things which are unusual about the St. George race. As it wasn’t possible to have a race in Kona last October, IRONMAN has moved the race to May in St. George – still calling it the 2021 World Champs.

From 1978 to 1980 the race was held on Oahu before moving to Kona, but this will be the first-ever Ironman World Championships outside of Hawaii. This means that the race won’t be contested in the Hawaiian heat and humidity but in the dry desert climate of Utah.

While most of the Hawaii course was at sea level, the St. George race starts at roughly 900m of altitude, climbing all the way to 1.500m. The topography of St. George also changes things: The swim will be in a lake instead of the Pacific Ocean, and the bike and run courses will have about 50% more altitude gain than in Kona (I’ve actually put together a handy guide to “St. George Course Information” on my TriRating website).

IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship 2021 St George
St George provides a very different challenge to Kona (Donald Miralle for IRONMAN).

The date of the race is also different: Having it in May means St. George will be at the start of an athlete’s season instead of the end, with limited chances for prep races.

All of these factors provide the background for fascinating Pro fields. Usually, there are a limited number of serious contenders – as per ‘Levison’s Law’ the winner at Kona is almost always in the top four in the previous year, or a previous winner.

But with the last World Championships now two-and-a-half years back, the list of contenders probably needs be extended.

Pro Men’s Field

The “obvious pick” is always the defending champion. On the men’s side that’s Jan Frodeno who hasn’t done an official full-distance race since Kona in 2019. His main 2021 event was the “TriBattle” with Lionel Sanders – a two-person event which saw him swimming, biking and running on his own all day.

Even in less-than-optimal conditions he improved his Roth 2016 time by almost eight minutes, posting a 7:27 including a 3:55 bike split. (Lionel also went fast, finishing in 7:43.) I haven’t heard any rumours that the course was short, but with that unique format it’s hard to determine what their fast times are actually worth.

Jan Frodeno / Lionel Sanders / Zwift Tri Battle Royale
Jan Frodeno clocked 7:27:53 in that Tri Battle in 2021 (Joern Pollex).

The next two clear candidates for the win in St. George are Ironman WC rookies – the Norwegians Gustav Iden and Kristian Blummenfelt.

Both had highly impressive first attempts at full distance – Iden posting 7:42 in Florida and Blummenfelt 7:21 in Cozumel. Most of their time difference was because of the swim – Florida had very choppy conditions leading to a tough swim, while the currents in Cozumel were conducive for a fast time.

Both posted equally impressive bike and run splits (4:02 and 2:35 for Kristian, 4:05 and 2:34 for Gustav). But the race dynamics in a World Championship race are a different beast, and only a head-to-head between the Norwegians and Frodeno will allow for a proper comparison between the three.

‘Levison’s Law’ gives us a few more athletes to consider for St. George. Two of these (Tim O’Donnell, second in Kona 2019, and Patrick Lange, 2017&18 champion) won’t be racing as they are still recovering from injuries. Sebastian Kienle (third in 2019) and Ben Hoffman (fourth) are potential podium picks, but it’s hard to see them beating all three of Frodeno, Iden and Blummenfelt.

Looking for athletes who may benefit from the change of venue, two names come to mind – Lionel Sanders and Joe Skipper. Both have to be very cautious to not overextend themselves in the Kona heat and may have much more flexibility in St. George. On the other hand, both are probably going to lose five minutes in the swim (maybe a bit less in a faster wetsuit swim?). The expected race dynamics of a fast swim and bike will make it hard for them to close this gap on the bike without ruining their run legs.

Other athletes are probably even harder to properly evaluate: Alistair Brownlee has big goals for 2022 after not qualifying to defend his Olympic Gold medal, but he hasn’t raced since his DQ in Leeds in June 2021. Daniel Bækkegård is one of the young up-and-comers but so far he lacks the deep experience in World Championships usually required to contend for the title. (He’s probably a good “dark horse pick” for a podium finish, though.)

Daneil Baekkegard finishing second at IRONMAN 70.3 Dubai 2022
Daneil Baekkegard is a dark horse podium pick (James Mitchell / IRONMAN).

As always there are many more names to be considered, and I will analyse them all in my full “St. George Rating Report” (to be released mid-April).

Pro Women’s Field

‘Levison’s Law’ will likely hold on the female side for St. George. 2019 Champion Anne Haug had a mixed 2021, dealing with COVID and a few resulting longer-term issues. However, she was superb at the shortened Challenge Roth, closing with a 2:43 marathon.

Another German, Laura Philipp, was fourth in Kona 2019. She won two 2021 Ironman races in Finland and Austria with 2:52 and 2:44 marathons. Laura also won the season opener at 70.3 Dubai against Daniela Ryf with a much-improved swim and another impressive run. The other athletes will want to start the run well in front of Anne and Laura, giving the two Germans many additional tactical options in a bigger bike group.

After winning the 2021 70.3 World Championship with the fastest splits in each leg, Lucy Charles-Barclay is considered by many as the odds-on favourite. Her big 2021 win was also in St. George, and the Ironman course will use many of the same roads.

IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship 2021 St George - Lucy Charles-Barclay
Lucy Charles-Barclay silenced the doubters in 2021 (Donald Miralle for IRONMAN).

The “question marks” with Lucy are as follows: Her last Ironman was in Kona 2019, she has also been racing shorter distance races in 2021 and is eying many other goals for 2022 such as the Sub8 project. But her coach Dan Lorang will make sure that Lucy’s focus of the first part of the season will be on another great performance in St. George.

The 2015 to 2018 Kona champion Ryf had a disappointing 13th-place finish in Kona in 2019 and an up-and-down season in 2021 with wins at IM Tulsa, IM Switzerland and a few 70.3s, but then disappointments in The Collins Cup (losing her match against Taylor Knibb) and at 70.3 Worlds (11th place).

But even if Daniela is no longer seen as the dominant force at every race she shows up, it would be foolish to write her off for St. George.

Daniela Ryf / IRONMAN 70.3 Dubai
Write off the great Daniela Ryf at your peril.

While it seems very likely that the winner in St. George will come from the four athletes mentioned above, there are a few additional contenders, at least for a podium finish.

It’s going to be the first World Championship for Skye Moench and Kat Matthews, but both have shown that they are among the strongest athletes on the bike and run. Sara Svensk won IM Cozumel in 8:22, but it’s hard to say what that fast time will be worth against a much deeper field.

St George clues

In March and early April, we will see many of the contenders mentioned above in prep races for St. George. The results of 70.3 Dubai, CLASH Miami, 70.3 Lanzarote, Challenge Chile, 70.3 Oceanside and Challenge Salou will be analysed for any last-minute indications of who is in form and who is not.

The typical strong fields in an IRONMAN World Championship always make it hard to predict the race, and the new location will make things even trickier.

I for one cannot wait for May 7 – I hope you stay with TriRating and TRI247 to enjoy the build-up with us!

Jonathan Turner
Written by
Jonathan Turner
Jonathan Turner is News Director for both TRI247 and RUN247, and is accustomed to big-name interviews, breaking news stories and providing unrivalled coverage for endurance sports.  
Discover more
Caroline Pohle Lena Meissner ironman 703 jonkoping sprint 2025
PremiumTriathlon’s mid-season report card: Tim Don on who’s raising the bar this triathlon race season
TRI-FIT VANGUARD tri suit review
The entry-level tri suit with a serious amount of performance for the price point – TRI-FIT VANGUARD review
Hayden Wilde bike supertri Boston 2024 photo credit supertri
Premium10 ways to make your road bike faster and more aero for triathlons
Kristian Blummenfelt photo credit: PTO Canadian Open
PremiumIs your gut health impacting your performance? The untapped potential of good gut health for triathletes
Laura Philipp and Kat Matthews on the run at the 2024 IRONMAN World Championship
PremiumHas triathlon reached peak performance? Tri experts and legends on how much faster triathletes could get
latest News
Marquardt Hogenhaug Foley IRONMAN Lake Placid 2025
‘World Championship level’ – Marquardt says bike bar was raised at Lake Placid
Solveig Lovseth wins IRONMAN Lake Placid 2025
IRONMAN Lake Placid 2025 women’s results: Løvseth shows she’s the real deal and next Norwegian superstar
Matthew Marquardt wins IRONMAN Lake Placid 2025
IRONMAN Lake Placid 2025 men’s results: Marquardt wins as defending champ EXPLODES on the run
Matthew Marquardt IRONMAN Cairns 2025 Finish Line
WATCH AGAIN: IRONMAN Lake Placid 2025 as Løvseth and Marquardt bag brilliant wins
Ruth Astle
Triathlon star Ruth Astle says injury hell has her on the brink of QUITTING
triathlon on your terms
Never miss out with our triathlon alerts & digest. Get a dose of adventure & inspiration with Boundless.
The 247 Group

The home of endurance sports

TRI247-LOGO_Primary-Black_RGB-1

CHOOSE YOUR MEMBERSHIP TO BECOME PART OF SOMETHING EPIC

We’re on a mission to elevate the world of endurance sport, becoming your go-to resource for expert training tips and inspiration, unbiased reporting and creating a platform for grassroots voices. But we can’t do it without you on board! Choose a TRI247+ membership option below and become part of something epic.

£7.95/month

Unlimited access. No ads. A whole library of tips, advice and inspiration at your finger tips, and the chance to shape the future of triathlon journalism.

100+ new articles/month

You’ll also gain access to our other premium websites:

Have an account? Sign in

£47.95/year
£95.40/year

50% Discount

100+ new articles/month

Unlimited access. No ads. A whole library of tips, advice and inspiration at your finger tips, and the chance to shape the future of triathlon journalism.

You’ll also gain access to our other premium websites:

Have an account? Sign in

Share to...